Selling
COD KPIs: Confirmation, Delivery and Return Rates
The COD KPIs that decide profit: confirmation rate, delivery rate, return rate, no-answer rate. Exact formulas, an example and what to fix when they drop.
3 min readControl-V team
In short
The three key COD KPIs are the confirmation rate (confirmed ÷ confirmed + cancelled before confirmation), the delivery rate (delivered ÷ delivered + returned) and the return rate (returned ÷ delivered + returned). Together with the no-answer rate, they show where a COD product loses money: in the leads, in the calls or at the door.
Key facts
- Confirmation rate = confirmed ÷ (confirmed + cancelled before confirmation).
- Delivery rate = delivered ÷ (delivered + returned).
- Return rate = returned ÷ (delivered + returned) = 1 − delivery rate.
- No-answer rate = orders cancelled after all call attempts ÷ all orders.
- Read every rate per product and per period, never only in total.
Two COD products with the same price and the same cost can end the month with opposite results. The difference is almost always in a few percentages.
Here are the COD KPIs we use, with exact formulas, so you compare products and periods the same way every time.
What are the formulas?
| KPI | Formula | Read it as |
|---|---|---|
| Confirmation rate | confirmed ÷ (confirmed + cancelled before confirmation) | How many real buyers your leads contain |
| Delivery rate | delivered ÷ (delivered + returned) | How many shipped parcels become cash |
| Return rate | returned ÷ (delivered + returned) | Refusals and failed deliveries |
| Cancellation rate | cancelled ÷ all orders | Orders lost before shipping |
| No-answer rate | cancelled after all attempts ÷ all orders | Unreachable buyers |
A worked example
A product receives 1,000 orders in a month. 620 are confirmed, 300 are cancelled before confirmation (including 120 never answered), and 80 are still being called. Of the 620 confirmed, 450 are delivered, 130 returned and 40 still on the road.
- Confirmation rate = 620 ÷ (620 + 300) = 67%
- Delivery rate = 450 ÷ (450 + 130) = 78%
- Return rate = 130 ÷ 580 = 22%
- No-answer rate = 120 ÷ 1,000 = 12%
Out of 1,000 leads, about 450 become cash. That is the number to use in your cost calculation; see COD landed cost.
What should you fix when a rate drops?
| Symptom | Likely cause | First action |
|---|---|---|
| Low confirmation | Weak leads, unclear offer, wrong audience | Change the ad or the landing page |
| High no-answer | Fake numbers, calls at bad times | Add phone validation, check call times |
| Low delivery | Price surprise, slow delivery, forced confirmations | Show the total price, check delivery time and agent incentives |
| Returns in one city | Courier or address issue | Ask for landmarks, check that city's courier |
How often should you look at the numbers?
Daily for orders and confirmations, weekly for delivery and returns (parcels take a few days to close), monthly for profit. In the Control-V dashboard you can filter the rates by product, by city and by period.
Frequently asked questions
What is a good delivery rate for COD?
It depends on the product, the price and the market. Compare your own products against each other and track the trend week by week rather than chasing a universal number.
Why does my confirmation rate look high but my delivery rate low?
Usually because buyers were pushed to confirm, or because the price at the door surprised them. Check the call script and the ad.
Should returns count in the confirmation rate?
No. A return happens after confirmation; it belongs in the delivery and return rates.
How long before a product's rates are reliable?
After a few hundred orders and two to three weeks, when most parcels have closed.
Measure the same way every week and you will know exactly where each product leaks money: in the leads, in the calls or at the door. Then fix one thing at a time. The call center guide covers the second step; our dashboard shows all these rates for you.
